The Population Dynamics Behind Suburban Sprawl

Thomas Bolioli
May 14, 2001

Table of Contents

• Abstract
• Part 1: Overview of Sprawl in Rhode Island
  • Introduction
    • Definition of Sprawl
  • Data on Sprawl
    • Effects/Indicators of Sprawl
      • Loss of open space
      • Housing location trends in once rural areas
      • Increases in single family housing starts and building permits
      • Loss of farms and forestland
      • Increased time in traffic/increased vehicle miles traveled (VMT)
      • Loss of Urban Population to Non-Urban Areas
      • Urban Decay
    • Causes Cited for Sprawl
  • Conclusions on Sprawl in Rhode Island
• Part 2: Research Design and Methods
  • Introduction
  • Data and Classifications
  • Methods
    • Age Structure and Cohort Analysis
    • Components of Change
    • Age Structure Deviation Analysis
    • Housing Analysis
• Part 3: Results and Analysis
  • Age Structure
  • Cohort Analysis
  • Components of Change
  • Internal Migration and Age Structure Deviation Analysis
  • Age-Structure Effects and Residential Preference
    • Age Shifts in the Thirty-Something and Middle-Aged Transitions
  • Housing Analysis
    • Household Size
    • Age-Structure and the Components of Change Effect on Housing Demand
      • Past Historic Housing Activity
      • Future Projections
    • Effect of Vacancy Rate and Other Factors on Housing Demand
    • Summary of Age Structure Effect on Housing Demand
• Part 4: Discussion
  • Summary
  • Caveats
    • The Possible Effect of Reclassification of Towns as Cities on the Analysis
    • Application of Analysis to Other Areas of the US
  • Conclusions
    • Implications for Future Study on Sprawl Indicators
    • Implications on Measures of Policy Effectiveness
    • The Costs of Suburbia Known But Ignored
• Appendix 1
  • Cohort Component Population Model
  • Age Structure Deviation Analysis
• Appendix 2
• Appendix 3a
• Appendix 3b
• Bibliography
• Table of Figures