ࡱ> V6usmoqsuwy{ }  q s uwy{}QSUWY[]_acegi k!!m""o##q$$s%%u&&w''y(({))}**+,q,,s--u..w//y00{11}2234Q44S55|m}mF  !"#$%&'()*+,-./0123456789:;<=>?@ABCDEGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ[\]^_`abcdefghijklmnopqrstvwxyz{|}~Root Entryb.@p]PerfectOffice_MAIN&8PerfectOffice_OBJECTS,@P@PSummaryInformation( ZOh+'Oh+'0T l xSC:\Program Files\Corel\WordPerfect Office 2000\Programs\Masters\design\zig zag.mstThomas Bolioli587CC:\PROGRAM FILES\COREL\WORDPERFECT OFFICE 2000\PROGRAMS\PRWIN9.EXEr -M@MW &d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular -M@M)?  Zf 4 @ @ @ @ @ @WPC8 ~ _`Orbhnw|"XXXX'33' >4NmhbIw oJier%td;V -(()}**q+-C.e00r1w134d8y_9 jDED.HKL_pLSMlMm,NrNOu"PtPmQ_bQE [{"\=_^f^WPC F2  I  .3  ," BGHI %,2  I  .3  IntroSlide '@ 9E !'2  I  .3  IntroSlide ,"! ,2  I  .3  ThePopulationDynamicsDrivingSprawl....2  1  .3  ThomasBoliolic&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc@@@(  *+,(2  I  .3  TheDevelopmentPatterninRIis.....2  A  .3  NotsimplytheresultofUrbantoRuralmigration...2  A  .3  Largelynottheresultofchangesinculturalsettlementpatternsovertime...2  A  .3  However,largelytheresultofdemographictrends...2  A  .3  Unequivocallyrelatedtopopulationgrowth...2  A  .3  Relatedtoresidentialpreferencedrivenbyfamilialneeds...2  A  .3  Mostlikelynotsomethingradicallynewanddifferentfrompastsettlementpatterns.(  ..-(2  I  .3  TheResearchWillShow.....2  A  .3  Thatthehousingdemandseeninthelast30yearswasrealandnottheresultofglutenousbehavior...2  A  .3  Thatoverthestudyperiod,age-specificresidentialpreferencehasnotchangedsignificantly...2  A  .3  Thatoverallpopulationgrowthisnotanadequatemeasuretocompareothergrowthrateswith...2  A  .3  TheconceptofSprawlsuffersfromalackofcontextwithregardstotimeandscale.-#  -2  I  .3  TodaysLineup..2  A  .3  DefineandDiscussSprawl..2  A  .3  DataandDefinitions..2  A  .3  AgeStructure..2  A  .3  AgeSpecificBehavior(LifeCycleMigration)..2  A  .3  HistoricalUrbanDevelopment..2  A  .3  CursorySpatialAnalysisofDevelopmentinRI..2  A  .3  ImplicationsofFindingsc&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc(AlsoInterspersedThroughout)c&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc@@@..2  A  .3  Conclusions-#;  ())*-2  I  .3  TodaysLineup..2  A  .3  DefineandDiscussSprawl..2  A  .3  DataandDefinitions..2  A  .3  AgeStructure..2  A  .3  NaturalIncrease(NI)v.Migration..2  A  .3  AgeSpecificBehavior(LifeCycleMigration)..2  A  .3  InferredMigration..2  A  .3  ShiftsinAgeSpecificBehavior..2  A  .3  Conclusions'!@  '2  I  .3  SprawlDefined-#  -2  I  .3  IndicatorsofSprawl..2  A  .3  Lossofopenspace/generalinefficientlandusepatterns..2  A  .3  Housinglocationtrendsinonceruralareas..2  A  .3  Increasesinsinglefamilyhousingstartsandbuildingpermits..2  A  .3  Lossoffarms,forestland..2  A  .3  Increasedtimeintraffic/increasedvehiclemilestraveled(VMT)..2  A  .3  GreaterincreaseofpopulationinNon-UrbanareasasopposedtoUrbanareas..2  A  .3  GeneralizedUrbanDecay6,+  " 62  I  .3  CausesofSprawlCommonlyCited..2  A  .3  TheAdventoftheAutomobile..2  A  .3  CulturalShiftintheIdeaofUrbanForm..2  A  .3  EconomicWealth(orlackthereof)'!36 '2  I  .3  HousingandPopulationGrowth'!` '2  I  .3  1995LandUse'!`  '2  I  .3  ExampleSubdivision1'! 12  I  .3  HypothesisofResearch....2  1  .3  Sprawlis.....2  A  .3  Therefore,oneofthemajorcausesofUrbanSprawlisthecombinedeffectofinternallife-cyclemigration,agespecificbehaviorpatternsthatincludeagespecificresidentialpreferencesandthecompositemakeupofthepopulationsagestructure.1';   12  I  .3  MethodsandData..2  A  .3  PopulationNormalization..2  A  .3  PopulationModeling(HoldingMigrationZero)-#+   < -2  I  .3  ClassificationsofTowns..2  A  .3  UrbanCore:c&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc   ContainsCentralFalls,Providence,Pawtucket,Woonsocket,Newport.Thesemunicipalitiesarehistoricallycitiesandaredubbed"oldmunicipalities"byGSRI.c&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc@@@..2  A  .3  UrbanRing:c&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc   ContainsN.Providence,E.Providence,W.Warwick,Cranston,Warwick.Thesemunicipalitiesareconsidered"newmunicipalities"andhaveonlybecomecitiesafterWWII.c&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc@@@..2  A  .3  Suburban:c&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc   ContainsBristol,Warren,Barrington,Middletown,Narragansett,Johnston,Cumberland,Lincoln,Westerly,E.Greenwich,Portsmouth,Smithfield,N.Kingstown,Jamestown.c&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc@@@..2  A  .3  Rural/EmergingSuburban:c&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc   ContainsTiverton,Coventry,S.Kingstown,N.Smithfield,Burrillville,Charlestown,Scituate,LittleCompton,Glocester,Hopkington,Richmond,Exeter,Foster,NewShoreham(BlockIsland),WestGreenwichc&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc@@@..2  A  .3  Urban:c&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc   Containsbothurbancoreandurbanringgroupscombined.c&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc@@@Ԁ..2  A  .3  Non-urban:c&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc   Containsbothsuburbanandrural/emergingsuburbangroupscombined.c&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc@@@'!`    '2  I  .3  ClassificationsMap  @'! '2  I  .3  Population/AgeStructureProfiles    @,"!22 ,2  I  .3  RhodeIslandHousingConstruction'!47 '2  I  .3  ContributionofVacation/OccasionalUseHomesOverTime'17: '2  I  .3  RIHousingTypesOverTime-# :453-2  I  .3  SomeFalseSprawlIndicators....2  1  .3  WhatSprawlisNot..2  A  .3  Lossofopenspace(doesnotincludespatialportionofargument,yet...)..2  A  .3  Aggregateincreasesinsinglefamilyhousingstartsandbuildingpermits..2  A  .3  Lossoffarms,forestland(again,withregardstoaggregatelossofland)1'+ +#"# 12  I  .3  AgeSpecificHousingPreference..2  A  .3  ThisisreferredtoasLife-CycleMigrationandcanbeshownindirectlybyusingamethodknownasAge-StructureNormalization.6,; ,$%  62  I  .3  AgeStructureNormalization..2  A  .3  Normalizationallowsonetoseethedifferencesbetweentworegionsagestructures.Thisisaccomplishedbyusingthetotalofbothpopulationsasabaselinetocomparethetworegionsagainst.'! '2  I  .3  1990Population:DeviationfromStateAverage'! '2  I  .3  1970-1990Population:DeviationfromStateNorm'1`-! '2  I  .3  RelativeNormalizationoverTime-#; 5689-2  I  .3  InferredMigration..2  A  .3  Life-CycleMigrationDataisnotavailabletodetermineinter-regionmigration...2  A  .3  Inlieuofthatdataasecondmethodwasemployedknownasnormalization...2  A  .3  Thiswillallowmigrationtobedeterminedbyinference.'!  '2  I  .3  1970-1990Population:PercentDeviationfromStateNorm-#)1?01-2  I  .3  NaturalIncrease..2  A  .3  NI    @t    @=Births    @t    @-Deaths    @t    @..2  A  .3  Therefore,assumingthereisnomigration,theNaturalIncreaseisthedifferencebetweenthenumberofbirthsintimetandthenumberdeathsintimet...2  A  .3  TheNIforaregionwasderivedbymodelingthepopulationusinghistoricalCensusnumbersandbirth/deathrateswhileholdingmigrationatzero.,"!`/0/ ,2  I  .3  NaturalIncreasev.Migration-#  BCEF-2  I  .3  IndicatorsofSprawl..2  A  .3  Lossofopenspace/generalinefficientlandusepatterns    @ c&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc(NotintheAggregate) c&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularcxxx    @..2  A  .3  Housinglocationtrendsinonceruralareas..2  A  .3  Increasesinsinglefamilyhousingstartsandbuildingpermits    @ c&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc(NotintheAggregate) c&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularcxxx    @..2  A  .3  Lossoffarms,forestland c&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc    @(NotintheAggregate) c&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularcxxx    @..2  A  .3  Increasedtimeintraffic/increasedvehiclemilestraveled(VMT)    @ (TrivialInRI)    @..2  A  .3  GreaterincreaseofpopulationinNon-UrbanareasasopposedtoUrbanareas..2  A  .3  GeneralizedUrbanDecay c&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc    @(CouldbeattributedtolossofPopulation)c&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularcxxx    @ 1'  @ACD $12  I  .3  IndicatorsofSprawlStillStanding..2  A  .3  Housinglocationtrendsinonceruralareas..2  A  .3  GreaterincreaseofpopulationinNon-UrbanareasasopposedtoUrbanareas( DGH(2  I  .3  OriginalDefinitionofSprawl..2  A  .3  TheconceptofSprawlhastakenonalifeofitsown...2  A  .3  WilliamH.WhyteJr.whocoinedthephrasehadneverintendedfortheconceptofSprawltobesoencompassing...2  A  .3  Hebasicallydidnotlikeleapfrogdevelopmentandfeltthatvacantlotswereahugeproblem.# AB#2  I  .3  EndofPopulationSection..2  A  .3     SurgeonGeneralsWarning:    @..2  A  .3  TherestofthepresentationdealswithmyinterpretationofSprawltakingintoaccountthedemographicfactorsjustdescribed.Thisparthasnotbeenstudiedtoanygreatextent.Itmustalsobestatedthattheseviewsarewhollymyownanddonotreflecttheviewsandbeliefsofmyadvisor,whowillremainnameless.1'!= 12  I  .3  IsaCloudFog,orisFogaCloud?....2  1  .3  SprawlMay Be aChangeofScale"1  "2  I  .3  1974LandUse,"@=?@ ",2  I  .3  1995HighDetailResidentialLanduse....2  1  .3  WithoutRoads"!  "2  I  .3  1988-1995LUCComparison"!  "2  I  .3  1988-1995LandUseChange'!`8>  '2  I  .3  ExampleSprawlConstruction,"!@;;< ,2  I  .3  ThePastWillRepeatItself....2  1  .3  TheJamesTillinghastHouseonAngellStreetattheCornerofHope'1@    '2  I  .3  ExampleSub-Division(Context)'!  '2  I  .3  ExampleSub-Division(detail)'!@   '2  I  .3  PossibleZoningChange"1> #"2  I  .3  1988LandUse-#;    -2  I  .3  DefinitionsofSprawl..2  A  .3  GrowSmartRhodeIsland-c&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc   Sprawlis"aninefficientdevelopmentpattern.""Sprawldescribeslanddevelopmenttrendsandpatternsthatarewastefulbecausetheytendtoconsumeanunnecessarilylargeamountofnaturalresources,requireredundantcapitalinvestments(publicfacilitiesandinfrastructures),andwasteconsiderablehumanresourcesbymakingpeoplecommuteunnecessarilylongdistances.Sprawlisalsowastefulbecauseitcausestheunder-utilizationofthesizableinvestmentsalreadymadeinurbanareas."c&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc@@@..2  A  .3  VermontForumonSprawl-c&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc   "Sprawlisdisperseddevelopmentoutsideofcompacturbanandvillagecentersalonghighwaysandinruralcountryside."c&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc@@@..2  A  .3  SierraClub1998-c&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc   "Sprawlislow-densitydevelopmentbeyondtheedgeofserviceandemployment,whichseparateswherepeoplelivefromwheretheyshop,work,recreate,andeducate-thusrequiringcarstomovebetweenzones."c&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc@@@..2  A  .3  RichardMoec&d9 Z6Times New Roman RegularcXXX(presidentoftheNationalTrustforHistoricPreservation)c&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc@@@-c&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc   "[Sprawlis]low-densitydevelopmentontheedgeofcitiesandtowns-poorlyplanned,land-consumptive,auto-dependentanddesignedwithoutrespecttoitssurroundings"'1 '2  I  .3  GrowthRatesAdjustedfor30yrshift1''&'( 12  I  .3  ConclusionsofResearch....2  1  .3  WhatisbeingreferredtoasSprawlis.....2  A  .3  Therefore,oneofthemajorcausesof UrbanSprawlisthecombinedeffectofinternallife-cyclemigration,agespecificbehaviorpatternsthatincludeagespecificresidentialpreferencesandthecompositemakeupofthepopulationsagestructure.'`  '2  I  .3  Acknowledgments,"1@&$% ,2  I  .3  1995HighDetailResidentialLanduse....2  1  .3  WithRoads V?E9r%?[\!}^IC^%)Background Blank TitleBullet ChartTextOrg ChartData ChartCombinationBulleted ListWPC;XX81%X81-|3'XXXX,,,,5/ @1 M @"""333DDDUUUfffwwwMf33MMffM&f3@MYfs3Mf̙ٳMMff3Mf&M3f@MYfs3MfMf33MMffM&f3@MYfs3MfMMff3Mf&M3f@MYfs3MfMf33MMff&M3f@MYfs3Mf̙ٳMMff3MfM&f3@MYfs3MfsM&T0Y3Y9f<l@sExM̌Yٙs榀Ʀ̳ٿfffffffffsffffsffffff9b+/ @1 O3\*`-{J k!B) B ^ j%) $o#1o#1B $J ^b ) WPCXX81%`3'XXXXKKKK5139RWPC5XX81%/3'XXXX,,,, ? ///333???OOO___fffoooM$]1#n>/~K:XEeQr\gЌs՘٣ޯ㻬ƺ68>EFRN_Vl_xgow&/9BbU[ahntzůκw9~CLV_ir| fmsz#*07=DNLJ!G%E)B,=NHXTc_mjxuf@nDvH LPTX\"`&d6oAuM|Xd臟鎤땪웯喙fGqN{V]dlszƉ Αՙݡ'08;FR]hs,5"?) 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 !@-B,B, 4 @ @ @ @ @ @ f" dddddd>2  I  .3  TitleofSlide  R/#+' $ / #lcqd9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc        @  Q Qcqd9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc        @H9  TitleofSlide+'/ -@1 B,3B, `R//R+13"=//W qd9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +H_9W qd9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +H_9W qd9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +H_9W qd9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +H_9W qd9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +H_9W qd9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +H_9)?  !@-B,B, 4 @ @ @ @ @ @ f" ddddddA2  I  .3  SubtitleofSlide  /+' 5F/lcqd9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc        @  Q Qcqd9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc        @H_9  SubtitleofSlideIN_q /@Qbs /@RdvC$5FXiz#%6HYj{):C}C66hd66666666hd@6e6f6h6g6e6h6i6fJV<J' alocxb=B E8{?<\?TB7&FZ@^vK z b36[w y2IT{Yr ^~]nIbU};nf- @ERC[FNIO_R>)b>geKh[kuo<Wrx |X'YYbF%%y t6$"IiWPC:XX81%XX81%&3'XXXX,,,,9"#.0  .0   #.0 .)*+%'13H9 !U/ O, \AZ"Arial RegularO` ` `         @H9  Q QO, \AZ"Arial RegularO` ` `  ThePopulationDynamicsDrivingSprawl.+%/ -@1 B, 3B, `".0.0  WPCXX81%XX81%&3'XXXX,,,,9"%*20 20  %20.+%13H_9 $|/O, \AZ"Arial RegularOxxx        @H_9  Q QO, \AZ"Arial RegularOxxxThomasBolioliWPCXX81%XX81%a3'XXXXKKKK9"`2/R/# R/#  `R/#.)*+%'13H9 ^3 / #tc&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc        @H9  Q Qc&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc Population/AgeStructureProfiles        @.+%/ -@1 B,3B, `_R// R WPC_XX81%XX81%3'XXXX,,,,9"20R/# R/#  R/#.)*+%'13H9 3 / #c&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc        @H9  Q Qc&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc IsaCloudFog,orisFogaCloud?.+%/ -@1 B,3B, `R// R WPCjXX81%XX81%~3'XXXXKKKK9"}2R/# R/#  }R/#.)*+%'13H9 {s/ #c&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc        @H9  Q Qc&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc 1990Population:DeviationfromStateAverage.+%/ -@1 B,3B, `|R//@R@WPCmXX81%XX81%3'XXXXKKKK9"2R/# R/#  R/#.)*+%'13H9 ~s/ #c&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc        @H9  Q Qc&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc 1970-1990Population:DeviationfromStateNorm.+%/ -@1 B,3B, `R//@R@WPCvXX81%XX81%3'XXXXKKKK9"2R/# R/#  R/#.)*+%'13H9 s/ #c&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc        @H9  Q Qc&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc 1970-1990Population:PercentDeviationfromStateNorm.+%/ -@1 B,3B, `R//@R@WPC`XX81%XX81%3'XXXX,,,,9"20R/# R/#  R/#-.)*+%'153H9 3 / #c&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc        @H9  Q Qc&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc SprawlDefined.+%/ -@1 B,3B, `R// R WPC@XX81%XX81%e3'XXXX,,,,9"20R/# R/#  R/#.%13H9 3 / #c&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc        @H9  Q Qc&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc ClassificationsofTowns.+%/ -@1 B,3B, `R// R WPCCXX81%XX81%e3'XXXX,,,,9"uQ/" uQ/"  uQ/"-.)*+%'153       !"#$%&'()*+,-./0123456789:;<=>?@ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ[\]^_`abcdefghijklmnopqrtuvwxyz{|}~+Q:/c&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc        @a /!!!!!!ac&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc@@@  /  c&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc@@@        @0M..UrbanCore:c&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc   ContainsCentralFalls,Providence,Pawtucket,Woonsocket,Newport.Thesemunicipalitiesarehistoricallycitiesandaredubbed"oldmunicipalities"byGSRI.c&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc@@@fc&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc@@@        @  /  c&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc@@@        @0M..UrbanRing:c&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc   ContainsN.Providence,E.Providence,W.Warwick,Cranston,Warwick.Thesemunicipalitiesareconsidered"newmunicipalities"andhaveonlybecomecitiesafterWWII.c&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc@@@fc&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc@@@        @  /  c&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc@@@        @0M..Suburban:c&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc   ContainsBristol,Warren,Barrington,Middletown,Narragansett,Johnston,Cumberland,Lincoln,Westerly,E.Greenwich,Portsmouth,Smithfield,N.Kingstown,Jamestown.c&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc@@@fc&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc@@@        @  /  c&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc@@@        @0M..Rural/EmergingSuburban:c&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc   ContainsTiverton,Coventry,S.Kingstown,N.Smithfield,Burrillville,Charlestown,Scituate,LittleCompton,Glocester,Hopkington,Richmond,Exeter,Foster,NewShoreham(BlockIsland),WestGreenwichc&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc@@@fc&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc@@@        @  /  c&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc@@@        @0M..Urban:c&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc   Containsbothurbancoreandurbanringgroupscombined.c&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc@@@Ԁfc&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc@@@        @  /  c&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc@@@        @0M..Non-urban:c&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc