ࡱ> {W6xknprtvxz| ~ r t vxz|~RTVXZ\^`bdfhj l!!n""p##r$$t%%v&&x''z((|))~**++r,,t--v..x//z00|11~2233R44T55 = =9  !"#$%&'()*+,-./012345678:;<=>?@ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ[\]^_`abcdefghijklmnopqrstuvwyz{|}~Root Entryb.@p"FPerfectOffice_MAIN&wyPerfectOffice_OBJECTS, iF iFSummaryInformation( ZOh+'Oh+'0\ t \C:\Program Files\Corel\WordPerfect Office 2000\Programs\Masters\business\marble border.mstThomas Bolioli756CC:\PROGRAM FILES\COREL\WORDPERFECT OFFICE 2000\PROGRAMS\PRWIN9.EXE?  @ZY 4 @ @ @ @ @ @ f" dddddd=2  I  .3  TitleofShow  H>.0 +' .kcqd9 Z6Times New RoWPCwy ~ #E.F]Ҩبިƪnu|"XXXX'33' >(dg^ j^ }yV jk@ d$~"%l%p%(,)a+u+j@,f,5-s-o.m.v./0e1v1n1kf2 = @BBID[DWPC 1') 12  I  .3  ThePopulationDynamicsDrivingSprawl....2  1  .3  ThomasBoliolic&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc@@@-#   -2  I  .3  TheDevelopmentPatterninRIis.....2  A  .3  NotsimplytheresultofUrbantoRuralmigration...2  A  .3  Largelynottheresultofchangesinculturalsettlementpatternsovertime...2  A  .3  However,largelytheresultofdemographictrends...2  A  .3  Unequivocallyrelatedtopopulationgrowth...2  A  .3  Relatedtoresidentialpreferencedrivenmostlikelybyfamilialneeds.-#  -2  I  .3  TheResearchWillShow.....2  A  .3  Thatthehousingdemandseeninthelast30yearswasrealandnottheresultofglutenousbehavior...2  A  .3  Thatoverthestudyperiod,age-specificresidentialpreferencehasnotchangedsignificantly...2  A  .3  Thatoverallpopulationgrowthisnotanadequatemeasuretocompareothergrowthrateswith.-#    -2  I  .3  TodaysLineup..2  A  .3  DefineSprawl..2  A  .3  DataandDefinitions..2  A  .3  AgeStructure..2  A  .3  NaturalIncrease(NI)v.Migration..2  A  .3  AgeSpecificBehavior(LifeCycleMigration)..2  A  .3  HousingAnalysis..2  A  .3  Conclusions,")@ ,2  I  .3  SprawlDefined-#  -2  I  .3  IndicatorsofSprawl..2  A  .3  Lossofopenspace/generalinefficientlandusepatterns..2  A  .3  Housinglocationtrendsinonceruralareas..2  A  .3  Increasesinsinglefamilyhousingstartsandbuildingpermits..2  A  .3  Lossoffarms,forestland..2  A  .3  Increasedtimeintraffic/increasedvehiclemilestraveled(VMT)..2  A  .3  GreaterincreaseofpopulationinNon-UrbanareasasopposedtoUrbanareas..2  A  .3  GeneralizedUrbanDecay,"    ,2  I  .3  RhodeIslandHousingConstruction,") ,2  I  .3  HousingandPopulationGrowth6,     62  I  .3  HypothesisofResearch....2  1  .3  Sprawlis.....2  A  .3  Therefore,oneofthemajorcausesofUrbanSprawlisthecombinedeffectofinternallife-cyclemigration,agespecificbehaviorpatternsthatincludeagespecificresidentialpreferencesandthecompositemakeupofthepopulationsagestructure.-#)  -2  I  .3  ClassificationsofTowns..2  A  .3  UrbanCore:c&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc   ContainsCentralFalls,Providence,Pawtucket,Woonsocket,Newport.Thesemunicipalitiesarehistoricallycitiesandaredubbed"oldmunicipalities"byGSRI.c&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc@@@..2  A  .3  UrbanRing:c&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc   ContainsN.Providence,E.Providence,W.Warwick,Cranston,Warwick.Thesemunicipalitiesareconsidered"newmunicipalities"andhaveonlybecomecitiesafterWWII.c&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc@@@..2  A  .3  Suburban:c&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc   ContainsBristol,Warren,Barrington,Middletown,Narragansett,Johnston,Cumberland,Lincoln,Westerly,E.Greenwich,Portsmouth,Smithfield,N.Kingstown,Jamestown.c&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc@@@..2  A  .3  Rural/EmergingSuburban:c&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc   ContainsTiverton,Coventry,S.Kingstown,N.Smithfield,Burrillville,Charlestown,Scituate,LittleCompton,Glocester,Hopkington,Richmond,Exeter,Foster,NewShoreham(BlockIsland),WestGreenwichc&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc@@@..2  A  .3  Urban:c&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc   Containsbothurbancoreandurbanringgroupscombined.c&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc@@@Ԁ..2  A  .3  Non-urban:c&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc   Containsbothsuburbanandrural/emergingsuburbangroupscombined.c&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc@@@-# -2  I  .3  MethodsofDemographicAnalysis..2  A  .3  AgeStructureAnalysis..2  A  .3  DecompositionoftheComponentsofChange..2  A  .3  AgeStructureDeviationAnalysis,") ,2  I  .3  Population/AgeStructureProfiles    @,"#4 ,2  I  .3  CohortAnalysis-# $%-2  I  .3  NaturalIncrease..2  A  .3  NI    @t    @=Births    @t    @-Deaths    @t    @..2  A  .3  Therefore,assumingthereisnomigration,theNaturalIncreaseisthedifferencebetweenthenumberofbirthsintimetandthenumberdeathsintimet...2  A  .3  TheNIforaregionwasderivedbymodelingthepopulationusinghistoricalCensusnumbersandbirth/deathrateswhileholdingmigrationatzero.1'`&  12  I  .3  NaturalIncreasev.Migration'&- '2  I  .3  UrbanNIv.Migration''. '2  I  .3  Non-UrbanNIv.Migration-#  '(-2  I  .3  Life-CycleMigration..2  A  .3  WhenpeoplemigratebetweentworegionsbetweenparticulartimesintheirlifetheyareengaginginwhatisknownasLife-CycleMigration...2  A  .3  Ifthoseratesofinternalmigrationhavechangedthensprawlistheresultofabehaviorchangeacrossgenerations...2  A  .3  Unfortunately,Life-CycleMigrationDataisnotavailabletodetermineinter-regionmigration.1'  12  I  .3  AgeSpecificHousingPreference..2  A  .3  Life-CycleMigrationcanbeshownindirectlybyusingamethodknownasAgeStructureDeviationAnalysis.6,     62  I  .3  AgeStructureDeviationAnalysis..2  A  .3  AgeStructureDeviationAnalysisallowsonetoseethedifferencesbetweentworegionsagestructures.Thisisaccomplishedbyusingthetotalofbothpopulationsasabaselinetocomparethetworegionsagainst.'(0 '2  I  .3  SampleAge-StructureDeviation'*  '2  I  .3  Non-UrbanDeviation'+  '2  I  .3  UrbanDeviation,")`  ,2  I  .3  RelativeAgeStructureDeviationAnalysisoverTime') '2  I  .3  Non-UrbanRelativeDeviation', '2  I  .3  UrbanRelativeDeviation'$5 '2  I  .3  ResidentialPreference'%6 '2  I  .3  RelativeResidentialPreference," 1: ,2  I  .3  HousingAnalysis....2  1  .3  RIAverageHouseholdSize,"-;< ,2  I  .3  HousingAnalysis....2  1  .3  RIAverageHouseholdSize'*7 '2  I  .3  HousingDemand',9 '2  I  .3  HousingDemandandConstruction'!2 '2  I  .3  DetailedHousingDemand'+8 '2  I  .3  ProjectedPopulation-#  -2  I  .3  IndicatorsofSprawl..2  A  .3  Lossofopenspace/generalinefficientlandusepatterns    @ c&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc(NotintheAggregate) c&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularcxxx    @..2  A  .3  Housinglocationtrendsinonceruralareas..2  A  .3  Increasesinsinglefamilyhousingstartsandbuildingpermits    @ c&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc(NotintheAggregate) c&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularcxxx    @..2  A  .3  Lossoffarms,forestland c&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc    @(NotintheAggregate) c&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularcxxx    @..2  A  .3  Increasedtimeintraffic/increasedvehiclemilestraveled(VMT)    @ (Problemsw/measurementinRI)    @..2  A  .3  GreaterincreaseofpopulationinNon-UrbanareasasopposedtoUrbanareas..2  A  .3  GeneralizedUrbanDecay c&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc    @(CouldbeattributedtolossofPopulation)c&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularcxxx    @ 2(  !"#22  I  .3  SomeFalseSprawlIndicators....2  1  .3  WhatSprawlisNot..2  A  .3  Lossofopenspace(doesnotincludespatialportionofargument,yet...)..2  A  .3  Aggregateincreasesinsinglefamilyhousingstartsandbuildingpermits..2  A  .3  Lossoffarms,forestland(again,withregardstoaggregatelossofland)1'   12  I  .3  IndicatorsofSprawlStillStanding..2  A  .3  Housinglocationtrendsinonceruralareas..2  A  .3  GreaterincreaseofpopulationinNon-UrbanareasasopposedtoUrbanareasc&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc   6,   62  I  .3  ConclusionsofResearch....2  1  .3  WhatisbeingreferredtoasSprawlis.....2  A  .3  Therefore,oneofthemajorcausesof UrbanSprawlisthecombinedeffectofinternallife-cyclemigration,agespecificbehaviorpatternsthatincludeagespecificresidentialpreferencesandthecompositemakeupofthepopulationsagestructure.#)/#2  I  .3  Appendix," "3 ,2  I  .3  GrowthRatesAdjustedfor30yrshift V'I.r%Sf!qȐlD4a[05- BlankBackground TitleBullet ChartTextOrg ChartData ChartCombinationBulleted ListWPCXX81%`3'XXXXKKKK5139RWPC#T}KpG1s%-3'XXXX,,,,513 ? 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